To buy or not to buy?

[Pauly]

Hi all,

I was thinking of buying another buy-to-let property but am slightly worried the housing market is heading for a crash?

What do you all reckon?

Paul.

[Carryon Regardless]

Never say never but I only see possibilities of another slump.

The quick buck days are well gone so now the calculations are based on returns against outgoings, or returns against outlay.

If a venture is viable cash flow wise then a slump shouldn't affect it.

My own view is that the worst of the housing depreciation is now behind us but that any recovery will be slow until the banks make lending borrowing easier.

[Richlist]

Haven't we just had a crash over the last 3 years ?......Oh no that was new build flats in Manchester and Sheffield & a general collapse in property prices in Spain..

Its a ridiculously question without qualifying where. Even in a major crash some areas show prices rises whilst all around are collapsing.

Expensive properties in London are doing very nicely supported in part by overseas visitors and some areas of Scotland are doing exceptionally well. In the suburbs, sleepy rural areas and the back end of Wales things might not be so rosy.

There are lots of bargains out there at give away prices. The problem is finance availability, with high interest rates, silly arrangement fees and onerous terms and conditions.

It really depends on which newspaper you read. Some have been predicting a collapse in KK house prices for the past 10 years.......well......I guess they have got to be right eventually.

I have a theory that the subject of house prices is one of many subjects that newspaper editors can pick off their shelves and write absolute bollocks about whenever there is little other news to fill their columns......along with immigration, the economy, petrol prices, unemployment, the Royal Family and Afganistan etc etc.

[Reg]

I can only see a long drawn out decline in house prices, possibly lasting over the next 5 years. The government has tried it's best to prop up house price / banks balance sheets with record low interest rates and money printing, yet house prices are still falling.

So, I wouldn't be buying anytime soon, unless you are cash rich and the rental yield to property value is at least 10%.

Buy-to-let is a long term gain, but it can also be long term pain too (tenants, void periods, maintenance etc).

I was lucky and sold three (out of four) of my buy-to-lets last summer at silly prices. People have woken up now and wont pay these silly prices anymore and banks want big deposits as they know there is pain ahead.

[Carryon Regardless]

You may be right Reg, it's all crystal ball stuff and let's face it if ours worked well there wouldn't be many of us with any property as we would have sold them late 2007.

My greatest concern for this industry in the last 3 years is the onerous legislations causing many of us to become social LL's, I don't see profit in that.

[Melboy]

I complete on one of my property renovations this Friday coming.

Top location requested area and road.

I bought last October 2010 and have sold August 2011. I had 2 viewings in that time frame...... that's right 2 viewings!..... the second person offered on the 4th August and I accepted. Hardly overwhelmed with viewings would you say? ... lol

The property was completely renovated to a high standard with new everything bathroom, kitchen, windows, the lot!

I wasn't overly concerned about the property not selling because I had a queue of people wanting to rent it from me from September onwards.

And the important bit.........

Did I make a profit? Yes!

The market is pretty dire at the moment outside of the London area....I'm in the South West of the UK and I keep a close eye on the property markets, in fact my contact EA has just gone bust again for the second time in 3 years.....not because he is useless but because the supply of houses coming to market has dried up as people avoid the moving process up the ladder due to fiscal restraints on their budgets. First time buyers are rarer than hen's teeth as well and they are very people who keep the property market bouyant.

How do I personally see the market going over the next 12 months? a drop of 5% to 10% I reckon with nothing moving upwards until 2014 as inflation kicks in as per normal.

Mel.

[Richlist]

How do I personally see the market going over the next 12 months? a drop of 5% to 10% I reckon with nothing moving upwards until 2014 as inflation kicks in as per normal.

Respected analysts at the Centre for Economics and Business Research don't agree with you. See:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-2027809/UK-house-prices-rise-14-2015-predicts-Centre-Economics-Business-Research.html?ITO=14

[Melboy]

How do I personally see the market going over the next 12 months? a drop of 5% to 10% I reckon with nothing moving upwards until 2014 as inflation kicks in as per normal.

Respected analysts at the Centre for Economics and Business Research don't agree with you. See:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-2027809/UK-house-prices-rise-14-2015-predicts-Centre-Economics-Business-Research.html?ITO=14

Just my personal opinion Richlist on how I see things going and I really don't care for "experts" anyway who always seem to get things totally wrong and my word how they have done that over the past 50 years when it comes to economic and financial news.

If all these experts are that clever how come none of them saw the property crash of 2007?

As far as I know only one person reporting in a financial newspaper forsaw the demise of the Northern Rock bank and that was in April 2007 and I reacted to that report as I was a very serious investor in Northern Rock (and Bradford and Bingly)and fortunately I had pulled my hard earned cash out of both of the organisations by August of 2007 just before the big banking crash.

Anyway property percentages can do what it likes now, up or down, as it is very unlikely I shall be undertaking anymore property renovations as I retire into the Sunset to spend my money before the inheritance taxman grabbeth it all.

Mel.